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The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of Scotland and New Zealand. A heaving Murrayfield, a scoreless tie, winter of 1964. Euphoria at full-time. A pitch invasion to reflect the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

Having beaten Ireland, Wales and England, the All Blacks had finally been halted in a Test.

The man from Pathe News almost blew a gasket. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he reported breathlessly and somewhat optimistically. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Exiting the ground after the match, Scottish fans would have had optimism about what was to come. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and zero victories, but clear signs that maybe one was not far off.

A few seasons after, New Zealand beat the Scots. Half a decade later, history repeated itself. Three years further on, same story. Another five-year gap and, indeed, you know the rest.

Recent History

Two decades of matches later. Twenty All Black wins. From Christchurch to Dunedin, Auckland to Cardiff - the landscapes have changed but results remain consistent.

During his tenure, Scotland's coach has broken winless streaks in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this challenge is different. This is 32 games across 120 years. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Team News

Over the past seasons the comprehensive defeats have narrowed to eight points, five points and eight points in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Via their excellence, their power, their chicanery, they get the job done.

We're now at the point of the week where the optimism that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history.

Key Absences

Recent updates revealed that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was like a kick in the guts.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's a freak and had he been declared fit then the long gap without a game would not have been too worrying.

During modern rugby early in matches, his endurance stands out. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the European championship.

Replacement Concerns

They're without Huw Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with his club. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. While Rae is capable, his Test career consists of limited game time.

And when Rae is finished, his replacement takes over. While competent, evidence is lacking that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Coaching Choices

Townsend has sprung surprises, some logical, some curious. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, with Darge among substitutes. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Historical Context

Facing the Irish, the All Blacks secured the opening match of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They started slowly, despite numerical advantage, but their final surge secured victory.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, offensive struggles, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

By the Numbers

For all that their blasts at the end, the final quarter is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. In all of their Tests going back three years, they've accumulated scores in opening periods and fewer after halftime.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, excellent second quarters, 26 in the third and solid finishes. They come exploding out of the traps.

Required Performance

During their last meeting, New Zealand scored early in the opening seven minutes. Leading 14-0, victory seemed assured. Scotland recovered majestically to dominate temporarily.

The lesson here is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland needs sustained pressure from the start - and keep it there.

In recent years, successful opponents have required a points average in the upper twenties. Scotland have got into the 20s only occasionally against the All Blacks.

Conclusion

Everything has to go right for Townsend's team. Everything. If they start butchering chances early on then forget it. A yellow card? A high penalty count? Set-piece struggles? The game is lost.

With perfect execution? A blistering beginning. A raucous crowd. Electric atmosphere. Ruthlessness. Finn Russell's magic. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Fantasy rugby, maybe. Consistent performance has been elusive from the Scottish team that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If the capability exists, it's about time it came out; 120 years is enough of a wait.